Brazil is experiencing its most severe drought since records began in 1950, with nearly 60% of the country affected, frequent forest fires in many areas, and major coffee-producing regions such as São Paulo and Minas Gerais suffering serious damage. Coffee trees are in their flowering period, and the drought and fires have exacerbated adverse growing conditions and may lead to reduced output in next year's new crop season. At the same time, domestic spot prices for Robusta in Brazil have surpassed those for Arabica, and international coffee prices remain high. This article will provide a detailed analysis of the impact of the drought and fires on Brazil's coffee industry and global prices. [more…]

Since the start of spring in September, Brazil's drought and fire situation has not eased but has instead continued to worsen. Multiple cities in Minas Gerais have gone without rain for a long time, and the Bom Despacho waterfall has even dried up; after briefly bringing fires under control, São Paulo state has seen 12 cities hit by fires again, with initial agricultural losses estimated at 2 billion reais. At the same time, large areas of smoke have caused air quality to plummet, and Brazil's meteorological agency has warned that five states will experience "black rain." The number of fires in Rio de Janeiro state has surged by more than 95% year-on-year, and nearly 4,000 cities nationwide face the threat of drought. The Brazilian government has sent a letter to the European Union requesting a postponement of the deforestation-free regulation (EUDR) set to take effect at the end of the year, but international coffee prices are still climbing, and Brazil's coffee industry is deeply worried about production and export prospects for the new crop season. [more…]

The Brazilian coffee industry is facing a dual shock from drought and fires. Since the end of August, fires have continued to spread across various regions, burning large swaths of coffee plantations and forcing producers to replant, delaying the originally planned 2025 harvest to 2027. Meanwhile, the worst drought on record has swept across the country, and falling water levels in Amazonian rivers have caused congestion at southern ports, where about 1.2 million bags of coffee have piled up and been damaged, with losses reaching as high as US$300 million. Smoke has covered nearly 5 million square kilometers, affecting at least 10 states. In view of multiple factors such as fires, worsening air quality and port delays, coffee exports are expected to decline and prices will continue to rise. [more…]

Brazil has recently suffered severe fires and a historic drought, with agribusiness losses reaching 14.7 billion reais, and coffee-growing regions have also been affected. According to estimates by the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock, the fires from June to August caused enormous economic losses, with São Paulo state hit hardest. At the same time, Brazil is experiencing an extreme drought, with more than a thousand cities going months without significant rainfall, many rivers shrinking, and coffee tree growth severely affected. The official agency Conab has already lowered its forecast for 2024/25 coffee production, expecting a reduction of 4 million bags, a decline of 6.8%. If weather conditions do not improve before the end of the year, production may decline further, and coffee prices will remain high. [more…]

Since 2024, Brazil has been continuously hit by high temperatures, droughts, and severe fires, with large areas of forest and farmland destroyed, agriculture suffering heavy losses, and coffee-growing regions also deeply affected. Although southern Brazil recently received rainfall, the brief precipitation is unlikely to fundamentally ease the drought, and the outlook for coffee production in the new season remains bleak. At the same time, Brazil's coffee exports have performed strongly but are constrained by port logistics congestion, keeping international coffee prices persistently high. This article will review the multiple impacts of Brazil's fires and drought on the coffee industry and analyze current export and price trends. [more…]

A drought and forest fires lasting for months are sweeping across South America, and Colombia has not been spared. Forests in many places have been burned, water sources are running dangerously low, the water level of the Amazon River has plummeted, and Cauca Department has suffered its worst fires in nearly three decades, with large numbers of coffee crops damaged. Water rationing policies have left coffee farmers in a dilemma: insufficient irrigation affects yields, while exceeding water limits brings fines. The latest data show that Colombia's coffee production had fallen to 1.05 million bags in August, with inventories down 7.2% month on month. As the world's third-largest coffee-producing country, declining output and inventories are pushing up international coffee prices. [more…]

Brazil is experiencing its worst drought in seventy years, with the major coffee-growing states of São Paulo and Minas Gerais hit especially hard. Wildfires have consumed large numbers of coffee plantations, with some estates losing nearly half their harvest, and the agriculture department estimates losses exceeding 2 billion reais. At the same time, Brazil's coffee exports hit a record high in August, driven mainly by stockpiling demand ahead of the EU's imminent implementation of the EUDR. Rabobank expects coffee prices to remain high through the end of the year, while the production outlook for the next crop season is full of uncertainty. This article will review the drought's comprehensive impact on Brazil's coffee industry and follow Front Street Coffee's ongoing tracking of developments in the producing regions. [more…]

The latest report from the Brazilian government shows that more than 1,000 cities across the country are experiencing extreme or severe drought, with the number of fires hitting a near-decade high. Experts assess this as the most severe drought in the past 70 years. The northern Amazonas state and Mato Grosso do Sul state are particularly hard hit, while Minas Gerais, the main coffee-producing region, also faces the threat of high temperatures and scant rainfall. To cope with the adverse effects, Brazilian coffee regions are accelerating their harvest pace, but domestic market inventories are tight, expectations for new-crop supply have been revised downward, and the global coffee market remains highly attentive to changes in Brazilian supply. [more…]

Brazil's National Meteorological Agency recently issued a warning that the central region of the country will continue to experience dry conditions with little rain, and the dry season is more severe than in previous years. Currently, more than 3,000 cities are in varying degrees of drought, with over a thousand cities facing extreme or severe drought. Acre, Amazonas, and many other places have declared states of emergency, with frequent fires, falling river levels, and poor harvests of major agricultural products such as coffee. Brazil's largest coffee cooperative, Cooxupe, pointed out that many producing regions have gone more than three months without rainfall, and August rainfall is still expected to be zero. Coffee farmers are pinning their hopes on the return of rain when the dry season ends in September to October, but La Niña may once again disrupt the weather and threaten coffee production in the next crop season. Affected by this, international coffee prices remain high, and many European and American manufacturers have announced price increases. Front Street Coffee will continue to monitor developments in Brazilian producing regions and trends in the coffee market. [more…]

Brazil has recently suffered severe drought and fires, causing reservoir levels to drop critically and hydropower capacity to plummet, and the government is evaluating the reinstatement of daylight saving time to save electricity. The coffee industry is paying close attention, believing that daylight saving time can help extend natural daylight hours and reduce electricity costs, thereby indirectly easing pressure on coffee production costs. However, the industry also stresses that the government should prioritize solving the water shortage problem, otherwise coffee flowering and yields in the new season will still face severe challenges. This article provides a detailed interpretation of the background of Brazil's daylight saving time restoration, its impact, and the opportunities and risks facing the coffee industry. [more…]

Since entering the dry season in November 2023, the El Niño phenomenon has continued to intensify drought conditions in Guatemala, triggering large-scale forest fires and severe shortages of hydroelectric power. Wildfires in the Agua Volcano region in southern Guatemala have affected the two major coffee-producing areas of Antigua and Acatenango, damaging more than 40 hectares of vegetation; meanwhile, the National Interconnected Power System has been in a state of emergency since March 18, with hydroelectric generation down 17% compared with the historical average, driving up operating costs for coffee processing plants. The drought in the Panama Canal has further lengthened fuel transportation cycles, putting additional pressure on the coffee industry chain. Guatemala is seeking relief by attracting investment and holding meetings on an economic action plan. This article will review the disaster data, the causes of the power crisis, and their cascading effects on coffee cultivation and processing. [more…]

Honduras, as the largest producer and exporter of washed Arabica coffee in Central America, is currently facing severe environmental challenges. Persistent high temperatures and drought have triggered large-scale forest fires, causing air quality to deteriorate sharply, and an indefinite red alert has been activated in the central region of the capital. Meanwhile, the El Niño phenomenon has delayed the rainy season, with rainfall significantly lower than in previous years. The dual impact of air pollution and drought comes at a critical time for coffee tree growth and flowering, and major producing regions are likely to be severely affected. Export data for the 2023/24 season has already shown a downward trend, and the outlook for Honduras's coffee industry is concerning. [more…]

Central and southern Brazil recently experienced heavy rainfall, with southern Mato Grosso and São Paulo state severely affected, impacting both transportation and power supply. Meanwhile, rainfall in Minas Gerais remains below the historical average, and the worst drought and wildfires in nearly 70 years have already caused deep damage to coffee cultivation. Although concentrated flowering occurred in October, whether the flowers will develop into fruit remains to be seen in December. Multiple institutions expect coffee production in the most severely affected areas to decline by 20% to 30%, with the potential of both the 2024/25 and 2025/26 crop years affected. [more…]

The state of São Paulo, Brazil, recently suffered severe fires, and the Civil Defense Authority warned that almost the entire state remains at high risk. Between August 22 and 24, a total of 2,600 fire points were recorded, with more than 80% concentrated in agricultural land such as sugarcane fields and coffee estates. The Ministry of Agriculture and Supply initially estimates losses at about 1 billion reais, and the actual figure may be higher. The fires burned at least 80,000 hectares of crops, and a large number of bees died, directly affecting coffee pollination and next year's output. At the same time, multiple coffee-producing regions in Brazil have gone more than 120 days without effective rainfall, the outlook for the Arabica flowering season is worrying, Robusta prices have already exceeded US$5,000 per ton, and coffee prices may continue to rise. [more…]

Colombia, as the world's third-largest coffee producer, has recently received a series of favorable news: a bank report shows significant growth in agricultural output and announces an investment of 22 billion Colombian pesos to support agricultural development. Meanwhile, the country's coffee production is expected to reach 12.53 million bags in the 2023/24 season, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and is expected to exceed 13 million bags in the 2024/25 season. However, drought, forest fires, rising cultivation costs, internal conflict, and the possible arrival of La Niña still bring many uncertainties to the coffee industry. This article will review the latest developments and potential risks in Colombia's coffee industry. [more…]

The latest August industry report released by the International Coffee Organization (ICO) shows that the monthly average of the global composite coffee price reached 238.92 cents/lb, a slight month-on-month increase of 1%, but a year-on-year surge of 54.6%, with prices fluctuating between 222.58 and 254.12 cents during the month. Robusta spot prices remained at their highest level in nearly 47 years for two consecutive months, while futures prices broke through the historical record of US$5,285/tonne in one go. A combination of factors such as worsening climate, rising interest rates, and geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to weigh on the supply chain. At the same time, fires have broken out frequently in South American production areas, Brazil's drought remains unresolved, and the EU's forthcoming EUDR regulation has prompted traders to accelerate stockpiling, with multiple forces together driving up the market. Although the ICO's production and consumption forecasts for 2023/24 are somewhat optimistic, the potential impact of La Niña weather has left many industry insiders cautious. [more…]

Colombia has recently been hit by sustained high temperatures and drought, with more than 500 forest fires breaking out nationwide. President Pedro has declared a state of natural disaster. The department of Cundinamarca has been particularly hard hit, activating a public disaster emergency mechanism. Meanwhile, the fires have affected several coffee-producing regions in the central and southern parts of the country, and since March to June is the main coffee harvest season in these areas, there is widespread concern in the industry that coffee production will suffer a major blow. [more…]

Recently, feedback data from multiple international coffee traders indicates that Vietnam's coffee production for the 2024/25 season is expected to decrease by 10%, potentially hitting its lowest level in nearly a decade. The return of La Niña has further fueled market concerns. As the world's second-largest coffee producer and largest robusta grower, Vietnam experienced its most severe drought in nearly ten years this year, particularly affecting the early flowering stage from March to May, leading to a second consecutive year of reduced output. Although rainfall increased somewhat by the end of May, it was insufficient to offset the damage from the earlier drought, with some coffee trees dying or growing poorly. In addition, Typhoon Yagi and the impending La Niña phenomenon may bring more rainfall, further threatening agricultural output. International robusta coffee futures prices once hit a nearly half-century high due to drought and fires, and recently fell sharply on Brazilian rainfall, but the market still expects prices to continue fluctuating before the end of the year. [more…]

Colombia's peace process has encountered new setbacks. While the government and the "Caraca" faction extended their ceasefire agreement, another faction—the Western Bloc of the "Central General Staff"—continued to exchange fire with government forces in Cauca Department. President Petro authorized an all-out offensive, and the military deployed more than 1,400 soldiers along with heavy equipment to launch a raid. The conflict sparked wildfires in the mountains, and combined with persistent drought and high temperatures, major coffee-producing regions such as Huila Department and Cauca Department were severely affected, with large tracts of coffee crops destroyed. Coffee output in August fell by nearly 100,000 bags month-on-month. The National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (FNC) said that after three consecutive years of declining production caused by La Niña, output is now struggling to recover, up 15% compared with last year. Regional peace and industry recovery remain core issues that the government urgently needs to address. [more…]

Since 2024, multiple Latin American countries have experienced historic high temperatures and droughts. Honduras is enduring its hottest and driest year since 1992, with maximum temperatures reaching 38-40°C. A total of 1,903 forest fires have broken out nationwide, destroying over 150,000 hectares of forest. Although the main coffee-producing regions have not yet been directly hit by the wildfires, rainfall has decreased by nearly 40% compared to the same period last year, hampering the growth of coffee plants during their flowering period. More critically, El Niño has not yet subsided, while La Niña is highly likely to arrive, and the threat of hurricane season is imminent. The Honduran Coffee Institute (IHCAFE) has already issued a warning about next season's output. Front Street Coffee will continue to monitor developments in the producing regions and bring first-hand information to enthusiasts. [more…]